Apple appears to be holding its ground on iPhone Air production, despite mounting reports that the company might scale back manufacturing due to lower-than-expected demand. A new investor note from TD Cowen, seen by AppleInsider, claims Apple has not altered its production targets for 2025, signalling that confidence in the new ultra-thin model remains intact.
₹1,19,900 in India, which is ₹15,000 less than the Pro model.(Shaurya Sharma – HT)” title=”iPhone Air 256GB costs ₹1,19,900 in India, which is ₹15,000 less than the Pro model.(Shaurya Sharma – HT)” />No production cuts after all
Rumours surfaced soon after the iPhone 17 lineup launch that Apple was trimming output of the iPhone Air, the brand’s thinnest ever iPhone, to adjust for weaker consumer interest. However, TD Cowen’s latest supply chain analysis contradicts those claims, stating there are “no changes” in Apple’s iPhone build plans for October, including the iPhone Air.
According to the report, Apple’s forecast for the iPhone Air remains at 3 million units for Q3 2025 and 7 million units for Q4 2025. Overall iPhone 17-series production figures also remain stable at 54 million units for the September quarter and 79 million for the December quarter.
Countering the chatter
TD Cowen’s report pushes back against a wave of speculation from other analysts. Mizuho Securities of Japan recently suggested Apple had cut iPhone Air orders by 1 million units, while increasing production of other models by 7 million. Well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also claimed that supply partners were scaling down capacity, and a Nikkei Asia report quoted a supplier describing the iPhone Air as “almost entering end-of-production mode.”
TD Cowen’s findings, however, paint a different picture, one of stability rather than panic. The firm’s “field work” in Apple’s supply chain found no evidence of reduced production, suggesting that earlier rumours may have been premature.
A long game for the Air
It’s worth noting that Apple’s production shifts don’t always align with short-term sales figures. The company’s flexible supply chain and just-in-time manufacturing allow quick adjustments if demand changes. Historically, Apple’s Pro models dominate early sales cycles, with non-Pro and mid-tier models, like the iPhone Air, gaining traction later in the year.
As such, Apple may simply be giving the iPhone Air more time to find its audience. While the jury is still out on its long-term success, for now, Apple seems far from losing “hope” in its thinnest iPhone yet.
